A three-year drought that occurred 3000 years ago may have been the cause of the fall of the Hittite empire in the Middle East. This finding is based on the analysis of timber used in the burial chamber of a later ruler, who may have been the father of King Midas.
The sudden drought would have caused significant problems with food provision, leading to a dramatic impact on the empire’s tax base. The Hittite empire was a major geopolitical force in the ancient world, known for its mastery of ironwork, cuneiform writing system, and powerful army.
Historical texts and archaeological evidence suggest that around 1200 BC, Hittite cities started being abandoned and the empire fragmented into independent states. These states were later overwhelmed by Assyrians from the east. Various theories have been proposed to explain the decline, including disease, famine, a shift to a drier climate over centuries, as well as invasions by groups known as “Sea Peoples.”
Researchers, led by Sturt Manning from Cornell University, have now found evidence of a severe drought from a large tomb built in the city of Gordion in 748 BC. The tomb’s size and timing suggest it may have been constructed for Midas’s father, the previous ruler. The juniper logs used in the burial chamber were analyzed to reveal reduced growth during specific time periods.
Less rainfall resulted in narrower tree rings, indicating decreased tree growth. The analysis of the logs showed 80 instances of two or more consecutive years with low rainfall, including a three-year period from 1198 to 1196 BC, which coincided with the abandonment of Hittite cities.
Another test, measuring the ratio of different carbon forms from wood samples, confirmed increasing dryness of the atmosphere between 1300 and 1200 BC, with spikes of dryness from 1222 to 1195 BC.
Researchers suggest that traditional societies could withstand one bad harvest due to their storage reserves. However, a third consecutive bad harvest would lead to a crisis. The drought likely had severe economic impacts on the Hittite empire, which heavily relied on grain and agriculture.
The results of this research shed new light on the climate changes during that time and their effects on the economy of centralized states. The inability to pay for soldiers and artisans due to a short and sharp drought could have caused the downfall of the Hittite empire.
Note: This article has been paraphrased to improve readability and remove references to other publications.
